Turkey's Erdogan silencing opposition and cementing grip on power

Ankara: Turkey's internal political landscape in 2025 has been marked by intensifying conflict and sharpening discord. Domestic political environment included detentions of opposition mayors and other personalities under the garb of anti-corruption investigations, social media restrictions, violent crackdowns, pressurising opposition figures to join ruling dispensation, etc. Municipalities run by the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), a Kemalist and social democratic political party in Turkey, have faced waves of arrests this year.

On Monday, hundreds of CHP members and leaders - considered the main rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) - clashed with local police before being arrested outside their party's headquarters in Istanbul.

A Turkish court on September 2 had ousted the Istanbul provincial head of CHP, Ozgur Celik and named former Deputy Chair of CHP, Gursel Tekin as the interim provincial head of the party. CHP national leader Ozgur Ozel dismissed the ruling as null and void, stating that Tekin was expelled from the party. Celik underscored that he would not hand over the post. The Turkish government has rejected accusations of political interference, commenting that the judiciary acts independently.

Building on the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in March this year, President Erdogan and the ruling AKP have embarked on further crackdown on the opposition groups. The arrest of Beyoglu Mayor Inan Guney on August 15 was the latest in a string of government crackdown on municipalities run by the CHP. Notably, Guney had a reputation of being non-controversial and maintained a low profile even as a Mayor. The number of CHP Mayors arrested in 2025 stands at 17, all currently in prison or under house arrest.

In addition to the arrests, a number of opposition Mayors have defected to the ruling AKP. Nine of them, including Aydin Mayor Ozlem Cercioglu, defected on August 14. Overall, 56 Mayors from opposition parties and independents have joined the AKP since the last elections. The political purge has significantly weakened the opposition by removing key local leaders, disrupting municipal governance in opposition CHP strongholds, affecting cohesion and limiting their ability to mobilise ahead of future elections. However, despite aggressive moves to squash opposition, protests continue with weekly rallies and strikes, highlighting deepening divisions ahead of potential early elections.

Compounding political instability, Turkey has faced severe economic challenges over the last three years with persistently high inflation fueling discontent. The annual inflation rate averaged 54 per cent in 2023, primarily driven by unorthodox monetary policies of Erdogan. This surged to 59 per cent in 2024. The year 2025 has seen inflation moderating a bit, dropping from 42 per cent in January to 34 per cent in July, this year.

The rising food and housing prices in Turkey have also hit the common man hard. The Turkish Lira's 16.3 per cent depreciation following Imamoglu’s arrest in March triggered market turmoil resulting in intervention from the Central Bank of Turkey to the tune of USD $25 billion from its reserves. Broader issues, including high employment, judicial corruption and a 'Not Free' rating from Freedom House, have amplified calls for economic reforms.

Meanwhile, the Erdogan government has stoked nationalistic passions and played up foreign policy triumphs in its bid to divert attention from the economic and political challenges. Portraying Turkey as a rising player through pro-government media to rally national pride, the Erdogan administration has been trying its best to divert attention from protests and economic hardships.

Turkey has seen moderate successes in the foreign policy sphere. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has positioned Turkey as a significant player in the region. Recent engagement with Syria includes signing of a military cooperation accord on August 14 this year, under which Turkey will provide weapon systems, equipment and logistical support to the new Syrian government.

Turkey's defence cooperation with Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Maldives, framed as partnerships with Muslim-majority nations, resonates with the country's public. Ankara's collaboration with Islamabad includes a USD $900 million deal signed in July this year to provide advanced Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones along with over 700 loitering munitions. Turkey's declaration of closing airspace, banning ships and severing ties with Israel over Gaza actions positions the country as a defender of shared values. The 'Terror-Free Turkey' campaign resulting in arms surrender by some members of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has also been appreciated.

A multi-party 'National Solidarity Brotherhood and Democracy Commission', led by Speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Numan Kurtulmus has been formed to resolve legal and constitutional hurdles to solve the Kurdish problem. However, it is likely to be a medium to delay the said campaign closer to the election period to allow Erdogan to extract political mileage of being 'protector of national unity'.

Separately, the ruling AKP has launched 'Century of Turkey Meetings' with the objective of mobilising public support for forthcoming election milestones, reaffirming AKP's central role, strengthening national unity and restoring electoral momentum. The campaign emphasises progress across key sectors, including healthcare, infrastructure, energy, education, diplomacy and technology. The evolving policy orientation is an attempt towards a recalibration from security driven paradigm to reconciliation driven, development-oriented governance-model.

By initiating corruption cases against the opposition leaders, AKP intends to sell it to the public that even CHP leaders are not happy by the rampant corruption. Recent polls, however, indicate a shifting landscape, wherein the opposition CHP leads with 33.3 per cent support compared to AKP's 30.2 per cent. Averages of 16 polls in July indicated that 67 per cent of Turks want the Erdogan era to end and support for jailed Mayor Imamoglu has risen.

While the Erdogan administration has boosted nationalistic pride, domestic instability in Turkey and broader changes in the international arena remain; with possible headwinds for Erdogan's plans to secure re-election or amend the constitution to extend his rule. Erdogan has been accused of trying to neutralise the opposition momentum before elections.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

--IANS

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